Many of you will have seen the movie Moneyball, where Oakland Athletics GM Billy Beane (played by Brad Pitt) turns his poor performing and literally poor A’s into a Major League Baseball Championship contending team with a 20-game win streak to their name. A streak that was achieved by signing cheap players who were rated poorly on face value by scouts. The management team instead used specific value stats as the basis for recruiting decisions, most famously whether a player “gets on base.”
This is a simplification of the A’s approach and achievements, but the broader lessons from the club’s focus on data-based decisions are now shaping sports around the world.
While there has yet to be any real money in Ultimate, perhaps there are still takeaways from improving our focus on statistics and more importantly which statistics we care about. It is with this in mind that I set out to create an advanced player performance metric for Ultimate; a summary statistic to rank a player’s impact and efficiency relative to other players.
If you will humour me… Moneydisc.
What are player impact ratings?
Player impact ratings are all-in-one statistical ratings which attempt to summarise and evaluate a player's overall performance by condensing various individual statistics into a single number value. Examples of which are VORP, PER, Nissan Net Points, AFL Fantasy Points, WAR or LEBRON. To help understand, I think it’s best to look an at one more closely.
John Hollinger’s PER (Player Efficiency Rating): This is one of the most popular basketball player impact ratings today, and its format is the basis for my Ultimate player impact rating. PER is a lengthy formula which strives to measure an NBA player’s per-minute performance adjusted for the pace of a game & playing time.
Editor’s Note: This is just an excerpt from Matthew Hudson’s full, amazing, analytical essay into statistical performance in Ultimate Frisbee. The full piece contains many more great insights, ‘fun statistics’ from Nationals past, a comprehensive explanation of the formulas and datasets, and is just generally an incredibly interesting read.
We can’t replicate the full version on this site, but you can view it at your leisure here.
ALSO - some email clients may have clipped the images/content from this email because it’s long. You may have a more visually stimulating reading experience on the substack website.
Without further delay, here are the top 5 performances in the open divisions since AUC 2019 (inclusive).
5. Alex Ladomatos PER: 23.67
(Sunder Slice 2021)
Tucked in between lockdowns for most of the Eastern States, the 2021 Australian Ultimate Championships were able to be held in Canberra with few changes to the norm other than QR code checks in, sadly an absence of Queensland teams, and hand sanitiser bottles on the side of fields. This marks the first the year of the Sunder vs. Ellipsis Men’s gold medal clash that have now become a mainstay. Slice looked to be a strong outfit with many young players emerging after the year hiatus from national frisbee competition. Going down early, Sunder rifled back after some well-placed pulls which set up an aggressive zone and produced quick breaks of their own. The game eventually settled into a tight one, filled with breaks and break backs, which Ellipsis ultimately took out winning 15-12.
By 2021, Lado had completed the transition from a lockdown defensive weapon to O-line linchpin, playing as an axis and reset handler for the Slice offensive group. He also crossed over for a few crunch time D points. As the main handler, he had a hefty offensive weight to bear, as Alex Shepherd & Alex Gan were playing on Slice’s D-line. The 2021 Slice O-line had less throwing power when compared to their winning outfits in 2018 & 2022. Despite Sunder’s reliance on Lado’s play generation, he seemingly felt no pressure and played a controlled game, with only 1 turnover. His performance featured many creative and powerful throws against a strong Ellipsis defence.
Lado has a number of highlight throws in this game, mixed amongst the consistent unders and break swings you would expect. Such as the huge standstill ¾ field flick down the sideline to make it 4-3 to Slice. After initially holstering a large wind-up, Lado unleashes a pinpoint dime, the initial holster makes the power of this throw even more impressive. Another highlight assist involves Lado stretching the half pivot throw as far as one can, by diving to his left to get out a break back hand on what looked to be a very high stall count, a truly technical throw.
By the end of the game Lado had thrown a colossal 741.8 metres, the 2nd highest total in the Open’s division, at an average distance of 14.8m per pass, which is ranked top 16. It truly was a quarterbacking handler effort filled with poise. Lado consistently found Slice players in difficult spaces, which can be attributed to generating a large percentage of Slice’s O-line momentum. All while being marked by some of Ellipsis’ best defenders, mostly fellow Croc Tom Tulett, which earns Lado the number 5 spot in the top 5.
Alex Ladomatos’ 2021 Game Stats
4. Tom Tulett PER: 23.97
(Ellipsis Men 2021)
Tom Tulett takes out the number 4 spot with his performance from the 2021 AUC final (the same game as the one above). In their 2nd full nationals season, the recently formed Men’s branch of the Ellipsis club took home gold by beating Sunder Slice 15-12. The elation, relief and overwhelming emotion of the moment can be seen on the face of all Ellipsis’ players after the winning goal is caught. The win meant Ellipsis had become the first club to win both the Open’s & Women’s Division 1 Australian Championships in the same year, a truly impressive feat from the Melbourne Club that had their off-season heavily affected by Melbourne’s lockdowns.
When people think big game player, Tom Tullet (Cupcake) surely springs to mind. It is a combination of his throwing talents, his high tally of clutch blocks, and the sheer volume of important points he plays, that makes Tom’s name so associated with big games. The 2021 final is one his best, and it ticks all the boxes above. Starting on the D-line, Tom was pulled across early to strengthen the O-line’s throwing after a Slice break. From here, Tom was a cornerstone of both lines’ successes in the final, playing a colossal 21 points out of a possible 27. As would be expected, Tom played much of this game in the handler space as both reset and axis, working well with Oliver Loughnan to control the tempo on Ellipsis’ early break chances. Tom is also our first player in the top 5 to post an effective pull. Throughout the game Tom utilises the often-debated spin pull to solid success – the extra revolutions gained from the body rotation led to high floaty upwind pulls which allowed Ellipsis to set their defence before a pass had been thrown.
An interesting statistic for this game is Ellipsis’ offensive line scoring efficiency when Tom is on the field compared when he is not. Tom’s offensive efficiency is 82%, scoring on 9 out of 11 chances, is impressive given the high volume of points played and the closeness of the final. When Tom was not on the field, the Ellipsis O-line had an offensive efficiency of 0. It must be mentioned there were only 2 points where Tom did not play offence; Ellipsis’ first 2 chances – but it would be interesting to see this extrapolated out over more games to truly assess Tom’s offensive contribution to the Ellipsis team’s scoring success over recent years.
Tom’s box score is also impressive, 5 Assists, 3 Secondary Assists, 1 Goal, 1 Block & 1 Effective Pull. Combined with the solid throwing distance of 491.9m, overall, Tom has healthy positive figures in all but 2 categories; Receiving Distance and Turnovers, which is understandable and likely expected given his role as a reset handler and aggressive shot taker. Tom also has the glory of throwing the final assist to win Ellipsis Men’s first title, a lofty but powerful flick huck to Rob Andrews where Tom’s trust in Rob’s height and elite receiving is rewarded.
Cupcake was kind enough to share some thoughts on the game and week, which brings insight to the effort, personal adversity faced, and the overwhelming emotion seen in the moments just after the win.
“My dad had passed away the week before and the last thing I really wanted to be doing was playing at a tournament. The combination of it all was incredibly draining, both emotionally and physically. I was largely numb and emotionless heading into the game, I don’t think I added much tactically, was just trying to get through each point as it came. I knew the load of points was going to be high, but not as high as it turned out being. I think the plan was to play me all D points and sporadically on O, but that changed when we struggled through the first couple of points. Looking back, that week contains some of the performances I’m most proud of.”
Tom Tulett’s 2021 final winning performance of 23.97 P.E.R. takes out the number 4 spot in the top 5.
Tom Tulett’s 2021 Game Stats
3. Elliott Cook PER: 28.74
(Mammoth Ultimate 2019)
The 2019 AUC Open’s final in Townsville saw a rematch of the clubs from 2018: Mammoth & Colony. It was a universe point spectacle, which featured the 2nd Callahan scored in a final by a Mammoth US import in as many years. Colony had gone back to their X/Y splitting ways and their 2 American superstars had returned to the US, but they still had enough current and future Aus Reps to make most other clubs envious. Mammoth had another year under their belt to develop their youthful athletic core, this and the experience from the previous year proved to be enough for them to take away the 15-14 win. Elliott Cook’s performance as the primary handler for the Mammoth O-line earns him spot number 3 in the top 5. Despite the trying windy conditions, Elliott was accurate and efficient on offence, throwing assist after assist to secure the victory for the Brisbane club.
It is clear watching this game that Elliott is a masterful thrower in the wind. During the game Elliott uses a multitude of different shot shapes to combat the wind’s effect on the disc or use it to open up receiving players. I found it hard to write a summary on the quality of throws and assists Elliott had in this game, so instead I’m going to list the notes I took on his throwing performance during the game:
Big inside out backhand up wind when down 0-2, looks a bit low but turns out to be a great decision as fights against the wind and receiver Zev Permack is unmarked deep.
Beautiful up wind flick to lead Liam Grimmond into an easy goal, very difficult shot in this wind, weighted perfectly to make it 2-3.
Downwind inside backhand break into space to throw another goal to Liam Grimmond, 4-4.
Getting so easily open in the handler space, great immediate fat side bullet cross wind 15m pass for the assist 10-10.
Visionary inside thrower led backhand to make it 11-11, might have gotten lucky, hard to tell from the camera angle, but it was so unexpected by the defence it came off easily.
Threads a needle to make it 13-12, down wind sideline leading flick, perfection on the throw in a high stall.
‘Not in’ call on universe on Elliott, leads Thomas Vo to the game winning assist with a lovely touchy flick to the open side.
In a hugely clutch effort, Elliott threw the last 4 Mammoth goals of the game, often while being marked by Peter Blakely, which Colony Mutiny had passed the defensive assignment to after the strength of Elliot’s early impact.
Elliott’s PER of 2.05 per point is the highest posted by any qualifying Opens player. This is primarily due to his high scoring involvement and box score statistics. The 7 assists and 2 goals caught lists Elliott as being involved in 9 out of a total 15 Mammoth scores, figures which were accumulated in just 14 points played. The throwing distance stats are equally impressive, Elliott’s total throwing distance of 488.35m ranks at number 6 in the Opens category, and if per point Elliott is 3rd, at 34.88 metres thrown each point. Elliott’s conquering of the wind in the 2019 AUC Open’s final earns him top 5 spot number 3.
Elliott Cook’s 2019 Game Stats
2. Robert Andrews PER: 32.32
(Ellipsis 2023)
Rob Andrews takes out the number 2 spot with his 2023 AUC finals performance, rated at a PER score of 32.32. Rob was an elite offensive weapon in this game, picking up a fistful of goals on the road to helping the Ellipsis Men’s team secure their 2nd national title. The 2023 final ended up being a comfortable win for the Ellipsis team who heading into the game felt like a slight underdog. Many thought the Melbourne squad did not have the roster depth to rival Sunder Dice. However, the top echelon of Ellipsis shone, and they cruised to take home the victory 15 – 10, off the back of a near flawless O-line scoring efficiency of 10 out of 11 pulls received.
After Rob’s impressive performance at Frisbee’s highest stage, The World Games, undoubtedly many people will have Rob listed as the best Australian Male-Matching player right now and likely of his generation. His deep space domination, showcased in the World Games semi-final against Germany, is combined with consistent and powerful throws, making Rob very useful in the handler space and a nye-impossible proposition to mark. Back Rob and he will get an easy under, then uncork a flick bomb around your mark due to his large frame. Dare to stop him under, and Ellipsis have no trouble putting it up long - if he doesn’t beat you to the space first, he will likely win the aerial contest.
It is easy to draw comparisons in Rob’s dual threat nature to Tom Rogacki, a player known on the world stage for generating large metres with disc in hand or scoring countless goals when cutting downfield. The stats agree with this assessment. When combining the average throwing distance & average receiving distance per pass categories, Rob has the 8th, 11th, and 14th ranked totals posted in an Open’s final. To add to this, no-one does it as much as Rob. As Frisbee is a game of gaining metres down a field, players who throw and receive passes further than others are invaluable in winning. Rob’s stats confirm what we can all see with our eyes, that his dual threat makes his metres gained far greater than the average player. Rob’s 2023 game is his most impactful in this category.
As mentioned earlier, the Ellipsis O-line was near perfect in the final, posting a scoring efficiency of 91% which Rob was key part of. The cutting partnership of Rob & Sam McGuckin was unstoppable, and Ellipsis knew it. From a 12-8 scoreline, Ellipsis ran 3 Sam / Rob T-stack pull receptions in a row to close out the game. All plays led to easy scores, and the last 2 goals were completed in under 4 passes. Rob’s box score stats of 3 assists, 2 secondary assists, 5 goals, 1 block & 4 efficient Pulls – all with only 1 turnover is tied 1st for the highest box score total recorded, and Rob’s stats were accumulated in 3 less total points. Rob’s efficient final earns him spot number 2 on the top 5.
Robert Andrews’ 2023 Game Stats
1. Alex Gan PER: 38.94
(Sunder Slice 2022)
Number 1 for Opens is Alex Gan! His game winning performance for Sunder Slice in 2022 scores the highest Open’s PER score of 38.94, which is 6 points higher than Rob Andrews’ 2nd place score – an extremely impressive PER posting on its own right. The 2022 AUC Open’s final was destined to be a classic, and it delivered. With WUCC due to be played later that year, both Ellipsis & Sunder Slice had bolstered squads. Ellipsis by its 2 New Zealand pickups Liam Haberfield & Nicholas Whitlock, and Slice by the nature of the club’s team split. Sunder Slice had the WUCC Sunder O-Line, which (accounting for current campaigns) listed 7 Dingoes (4 of which were Crocs). Coming out on defence for Universe point, Sunder took home the win after a huge pull by our featured player Alex Gan. This memorable pull forced Ellipsis deep inside their own endzone, allowing Slice’s defence to set and eventually leading to an aggressive huck option from Tom Tulett that sailed out of bounds. Sunder Slice punched in their first chance on offence and took home the win 15-14, their first as a club since 2018.
Alex was a handling, cutting, receiving powerhouse in this game. Both his throwing distance total of 791 metres and receiving distance total of 641 metres rank as number 1 in their respective categories. He also posted the highest box score total in the last 5 years, tied with Rob Andrews’ 2023 final. Alex’s 6 assists, 4 secondary assists and 2 goals is the highest scoring tally in the Open’s division and list Alex as being involved in 11 out of the 15 Sunder scoring plays. Alex also had a healthy offensive plus/minus of +8, playing a pivotal part of a truly impressive, fast paced, vertical stack running O-Line. For me what made this O-Line so successful and scary (other than it contained 7 current/future Dingoes) was the line’s discipline and the flexibility. The ability for every member of the 2022 Slice O-Line to be comfortable in any role made them truly hard to contain or predict. Alex obviously exemplifies this, and during the game he rotated through handler, primary cutter and continuation receiver roles, making him a truly hard player to lock down.
By 2022 Alex had mastered the use of the throw-n-go action. Alex’s ability to release while in the act of cutting on both the backhand & forehand side gains him so much separation. In the case of the 2022 final, this move often led to a wide-open throw on the subsequent reception of disc, where he can hit a break channel or fire off a power position huck.
This game also features one of the clutchest throws in Australian Open’s history, Alex’s universe point pull. A pull which I’d argue is the best thrown in an Open’s competition ever, some will likely suggest John McNaughton’s double helix pull in 2018, and when evaluated in a vacuum, you are probably right – it has more hang time, lands right in the back corner and leads to a Callahan. But I think given the given context of the universe point game and the resulting outcome - deep defensive pressure, the turnover, and a win for Sunder on the next possession - that Alex’s pull trumps it. To me it seems fitting that Alex ends up at number 1 in the Open’s PER ranking, as he has for my mind one of, if not the most, clutch Open’s play ever.
Alex Gan’s 2022 Game Stats