Many of you will have seen the movie Moneyball, where Oakland Athletics GM Billy Beane (played by Brad Pitt) turns his poor performing and literally poor A’s into a Major League Baseball Championship contending team with a 20-game win streak to their name. A streak that was achieved by signing cheap players who were rated poorly on face value by scouts. The management team instead used specific value stats as the basis for recruiting decisions, most famously whether a player “gets on base.”
This is a simplification of the A’s approach and achievements, but the broader lessons from the club’s focus on data-based decisions are now shaping sports around the world.
While there has yet to be any real money in Ultimate, perhaps there are still takeaways from improving our focus on statistics and more importantly which statistics we care about. It is with this in mind that I set out to create an advanced player performance metric for Ultimate; a summary statistic to rank a player’s impact and efficiency relative to other players.
If you will humour me… Moneydisc.
What are player impact ratings?
Player impact ratings are all-in-one statistical ratings which attempt to summarise and evaluate a player's overall performance by condensing various individual statistics into a single number value. Examples of which are VORP, PER, Nissan Net Points, AFL Fantasy Points, WAR or LEBRON. To help understand, I think it’s best to look an at one more closely.
John Hollinger’s PER (Player Efficiency Rating): This is one of the most popular basketball player impact ratings today, and its format is the basis for my Ultimate player impact rating. PER is a lengthy formula which strives to measure an NBA player’s per-minute performance adjusted for the pace of a game & playing time.
Editor’s Note: This is just an excerpt from Matthew Hudson’s full, amazing, analytical essay into statistical performance in Ultimate Frisbee. The full piece contains many more great insights, ‘fun statistics’ from Nationals past, a comprehensive explanation of the formulas and datasets, and is just generally an incredibly interesting read.
We can’t replicate the full version on this site, but you can view it at your leisure here.
ALSO - some email clients may have clipped the images/content from this email because it’s long. You may have a more visually stimulating reading experience on the substack website.
Without further delay, here are the top 5 performances in the women’s divisions since AUC 2019 (inclusive).
5. Lucy Deller PER: 24.98
(Ellipsis Asterisk 2022)
The 2022 AUC Women’s final was a spectacle, a universe point game that featured two Ellipsis squads that had dominated all other comers up to this point in the season. It saw Asterisk & Ampersand face off for the final interclub bragging rights, pride and uniquely, the player’s case for selection on the club’s WUCC team later in the year. Lucy Deller had presumably already cemented her spot for selection and played a free-flowing, commanding game as Asterisk’s O-Line primary option. Although Asterisk did lose the game in controversial (score-counting-related) circumstances, Deller confirmed herself as one of Australia’s best offensive players.
Lucy’s success in the game can be broken down into 3 facets of excellence: pull reception play generation, zone handling, and endzone cutting. By 2022, Lucy’s throwing talents had caught up to her early receiving dominance. Now equipped with powerful hucks and hammers as well as the ever-present deep space threat, Lucy proved to be a difficult proposition to mark. Ampersand’s defensive assignments struggled to contain Lucy, and she was able to get open in the under space at will. Reviewing Asterisk’s pull reception attempts, Lucy was able to generate successfully as the primary option 8 out of the 9 times in which she was the first look, at an average of 13.45m gained per pass.
When Ampersand switched to zone to stifle Asterisk’s pull plays, Lucy was quick to break it open with long cross field hammers that have now become a trademark of hers. While this shot did yield a few turnovers, the risk/reward trade off was stacked heavily in favour of Lucy letting the disc fly. As the sheer distance of the overheads meant the Ampersand defence was broken beyond repair. Post a Deller cross-field hammer Asterisk often had a many-on-1 situation in weakly defended spaces, which led to an easy goal.
By the end of the game Lucy had posted 4 goals, which is tied for the 2nd most across the 5 finals recorded. She was able to score both on deep receptions and in redzone possessions. Lucy’s elite front cone speed and timing was on full display, as she easily generated metres of separation from her defenders in the endzone. Lucy’s high box score tally and dual impressive receiving & throwing distance stats placed her at number 5 on the best performances over the past 5 finals.
Lucy Deller’s 2022 Game Stats
4. Cat Phillips PER: 26.12
(Melbourne Ellipsis 2018)
The 2018 AUC Women’s final saw Ellipsis win their 3rd AUC National title in as many years, another stellar performance at Nationals from the Melbourne club. As Ellipsis built towards their first WUCC campaign later in 2018, they had a strong side that GWS Blaze (or any other team that year) was no match for. Despite competing in windy conditions, which could have forced an upwind/downwind game, Ellipsis were relentless and took out the game 15-6. This year not wearing her familiar 35, Cat Phillips was no less dominant, and her 2018 final performance takes the number 4 spot in the top 5.
Cat is the 2nd player on our list to be playing as the downfield primary option on offence for an Ellipsis team. Cat also transitioned across lines for some defensive points, where she played a more handler-centric role. When crossing over, Cat’s backhand throwing power and ability to break the mark in a variety of ways was pivotal to Ellipsis’ D-line offence.
In the windiest of the 5 finals recorded, Cat was the most valuable contributor on the Ellipsis O-line, which had a flawless scoring efficiency of 100%. Cat’s box score lists 2 assists, 3 secondary assists (often point ending hucks) & 4 goals - all achieved in just 11 points played. 91% of time Cat was on field it resulted in a Ellipsis score, and in 8 out of the 11 points Cat orchestrated the goal in some manner. Unsurprisingly, Cat’s performance in the 2018 final comes in as the 2nd highest Per Point Women’s PER of 2.37.
In the upwind points, Cat used her powerful backhand to shoot aggressive options that, considering the agile receiving talents of Ellipsis, were definitely worth the risk. Cat’s throwing performance ranks at number 7 in average completed pass distance for qualifying players – a top 10 which features a few other Cat throwing performances. Cat also posted a top 8 total receiving distance, which can be attributed to Cat’s elite fitness and athleticism. On lengthy points her matchups often appear completely worn-down while Cat failed to tire, leading to free unders or power position generating upline cuts on the turn. The healthy box score, scoring efficiency and strong showings in throwing and receiving distances all contribute to Cat’s 2018 final performance being the 4th most impactful game in our top 5, posting a P.E.R. score of 26.12.
Cat Phillips’ 2018 Game Stats
3. Marah Neal PER: 29.73
(Ellipsis Ampersand 2022)
The number 3 spot goes to another performance from the universe point nail biter that was the 2022 Women’s AUC final: Marah Neal. A New Zealander who usually plays with the Wellington club Nexus Ultimate, Marah has become a recognisable threat at AUC Nationals. In 2022 Marah, like fellow Kiwi Eva Weatherall decided to join the Ellipsis squad as they built towards their WUCC ambitions. At Victorian regionals, Ampersand duelled against Asterisk without their two New Zealand stars, and they lost. But come AUC Nationals, both had flown over for the tournament, and they put on a show. Helping Ampersand win on universe in dramatic fashion.
Marah played as the main reset handler during the final, moving between both offensive & defensive lines and working well as a handling trio with Ellipsis star veterans Caro Ma & Alex Prentice. Her extreme flick power was relied upon to set up Ampersand’s receivers, which Marah used in both power position opportunities and stand and delivered shots. When Asterisk switched to a force middle defensive look to quell the deep options, Marah was all too comfortable in the reset space, generating easy swing and up-line looks for Ampersand to hit. Routinely Marah received every 2nd or 3rd pass in an offensive drive down the field against the force middle, building a comfortable tempo when Ampersand had the disc. This all contributed to Marah’s 2022 final performance being tied as 2nd highest throwing distance total – according to what I recorded, Georgia Egan-Griffiths also threw 567 metres in this game for Asterisk, which is a fun coincidence.
Marah was involved in 10 out of the 14 scoring plays for Ampersand, which is an incredibly high goal involvement rating of 71%. It’s also a reflection of Marah’s impressive throwing range and execution in endzone scenarios in the final. If we narrow down to the clutch periods of the game - after 10-10, Marah was even more impactful. Marah assisted or caught the goal in the last 4 scoring plays, helping Ampersand secure the victory. Highlights of which include a huge fat slide flick assist to Mikhaila Dignam to win, and an amazing toe-in goal on a second effort layout.
Marah was ranked 1st for most assists thrown in the games recorded, and her 45 possessions to 1 turnover is the 2nd highest completion percentage in high volume players. Truly a masterful handling performance by the NZ star to take out number 3 in the top 5.
Marah Neal’s 2022 Game Stats
2. Cat Phillips PER: 33.39
(Ellipsis Asterisk 2022)
Cat Phillips is back on our countdown again, taking out the number 2 spot of best AUC final performances for her efforts in 2022. For those keeping track at home, this is the 3rd performance from this game to make the top 5 of PER scores. The first national level Asterisk vs. Ampersand clash was truly chockerblock with elite performances.
Cat’s 23 points played in 2022 is tied for the most across both divisions, a testament to her fitness and importance to Ellipsis. The faith in her being on the field is well and truly backed up by stats from the games I recorded. Across the 5 final appearances, 4 of Cat’s games are rated in the top 10 for Women’s PER. Overall, Cat is ranked 1st in total offensive plus/minus with +25, 4th in defensive, and appears in the top 10 for averages in both these categories. Her scoring influence figures are matched only by Alex Prentice.
In the 2022 final, Cat was initially positioned as part of a lethal cutting pair with Lucy Deller, but as is common in her finals appearances, she settled into a handler role as the game progressed. Particularly against zone or in multi-turn points, Cat looks to get the disc. Her dual threat with the disc in hand or downfield as receiver was evident in this game. In the first 2 offensive points for Asterisk, Cat scores on a deep reception where she holds her space expertly and jumps to receive an easy 2 hand grab. She follows this up by taking on the Ampersand zone with a quick throw and go, then unleashing a pinpoint backhand huck for a no contest goal. Cat’s 7 assists are tied 1st for the most across both divisions, a feat only achieved in 2 other performances, and her total throwing distance of 516.1 metres is the 5th highest thrown. This is combined with the highest receiving distance in the Women’s division of 516.8 metres.
An interesting stat when looking at Cat’s impact is her average passing distance. In the 2022 final it was 17.2m per throw, which is nearly double the league average of 9.4m. Cat’s 2022 average is amongst a small group of high-volume throwers who averaged greater than 15m per completed throw (with at least 15 throws made in a game): Alicia Handley, Georgia Egan-Griffiths, Sarah Crossie & Lyra Meehan. What is quite remarkable is that Cat has done this 4 times, in 2018, 2019, 2022 & 2023, and she has the 2 highest usage volume games on this list. The 2022 final performance is number 2, with 35 completed passes thrown for just 2 turnovers.
Against Ampersand, Cat was able to generate large gainers with her throws using her elite skill, and taking advantage of her many power positions. Cat’s footwork and athleticism means her defender is often playing catch-up, allowing her to beat the mark to the space to get an easy break or launch a favourable backhand huck. This is a story of many of Cat’s games, but the 2022 final is one of her best. Cat’s masterful throwing control and downfield generation earns the number 2 on the top 5.
Cat Phillips’ 2022 Game Stats
1. Cat Phillips PER: 37.05
(Melbourne Ellipsis 2019)
The best performance of the past 5 years in a Women’s AUC final is, you guessed it, Cat Phillips! Cat’s division-leading throwing and plus/minus efficiency vs. Manly Ultimate in 2019 rounds out a domination of the top 5 list.
2019 marked a transition year for the Ellipsis club, as a large group of established players retired after the 2018 WUCC tournament. Ellipsis core players Cat Phillips, Caro Ma, Chloe McDonald & Georgia Egan-Griffiths led a young team filled with developing stars, but which had not yet experienced the pressure of finals frisbee. Manly on the other hand had a team filled to the brim with veterans, including names like Alexander, Crossie, Shires, Wentworth & Worman. To secure a 4th title in a row, both the Ellipsis rookies and seasoned players would have to elevate their game. Which I would say they did, and none more so than Cat Phillips.
Watching this game when recording the stats, I was not surprised that Cat’s performance was ranked as number 1 by PER. In a field full of Australian frisbee icons, there are many moments in this game where Cat looks to be a level above: Here she is laying out after a bump to immediately throw a swing assist – while Manly are still catching up.
In the 2nd windiest (a diagonal cross breeze) game of the 5 recorded, Cat played as an O-line handler with Chloe McDonald & Georgia Egan-Griffiths, though as usual hopped over to the D-line. She often played as the deep defender in a zone. Cat and Ellipsis played an aggressive style of frisbee, with any opportunity for a long shot being taken. As such Cat threw turnovers in high volume, but this is heavily outweighed by her positive impact on the field in play generation. In the 2019 final, Cat threw a division leading 661.3 metres, beating 2nd place by 60 metres, at an average pass distance of 16.13m per throw. Cat’s upwind backhands and power position aggressive flick options opened throwing lanes for Ellipsis to attack, or were just simply goals!
Cat finished the 2019 final with a box score posting of 51 throws, 7 assists, 2 secondary assists, 1 goal and 5 blocks, 3 totals of which are league leading. Unsurprisingly, Cat’s game is the highest Womens per point PER of 2.47. Lastly, in a close 15-11 game, which involved many breaks, Cat had a staggering plus/minus of +9. Ellipsis scored on 10 of 12 offensive points and 2 of 3 defensive points which Cat was on the field for. The stats about how good this game was are endless, but the huge throwing distance and extreme scoring efficiency is what separates the 2019 performance from 2022, or any other for that matter.
Cat Phillips’ 2019 Game Stats